A Critical Look At Critical Chain Project Management
Tzvi Raz, Faculty of Management, Tel Aviv University
Robert Barnes, Consultant, The iE3 Group Ltd, Auckland, New Zealand
February 2001
Abstract
Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) has emerged in the last few years as a novel approach for managing projects. In this paper we analyze CCPM in the light of their contribution to project management practice and to project success.
We start with a brief review of the key elements of CCPM. These are: revision downwards of duration estimates; buffer calculations; task completion notification; progress measurement; and priority setting. We continue with a critical analysis of CCPM in the light of the evidence in the research literature and in practice. We also consider the place that CCPM occupies in the broader project management context, and the costs associated with its adoption.
Our conclusion is that although CCPM has a number of valuable concepts, it does not provide a complete solution to the needs of project management. Consequently, organizations should be very careful when considering the adoption of CCPM to the exclusion of conventional project management techniques and methods.
Introduction
Critical Chain Project Management is a novel approach for managing projects developed and publicized by Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt (1997) in his book "Critical Chain". CCPM is an extension of his Theory Of Constraints (TOC) designed specifically for project environments.
The publication of Goldratts book generated some controversy
in the project management community see for instance Globerson (2000). The proponents of CCPM claim that it is a totally new, revolutionary way of thinking that can lead to superior, even unprecedented, performance in terms of reducing delivery time and increasing the ability to meet schedule and budget commitments. Others dismiss this as hype, arguing that the principles behind CCPM have been known to and applied by experienced project managers for decades, and that CCPM uniqueness is in the terminology rather than in substance.In addition, the application of CCPM requires the use of specialized software currently offered by a small number of vendors, not necessarily the market leaders. As a result, any organization that is considering the adoption of CCPM as a way for improving project performance faces significant costs, both economically and culturally.
The purpose of this paper is to provide some guidance to organizations and decision makers who are considering CCPM as an addition or a substitute to their current project management practices.
An Overview Of The Critical Chain Project Management Method
The starting point for CCPM is a list of tasks along with their duration estimates and dependencies. The first step consists of developing an initial schedule for the project tasks, taking into account both task dependencies and resource availability. At this point CCPM identifies the "Critical Chain" as the set of tasks that results in the longest path to project completion after resource leveling. So far CCPM is the same as conventional project management except for the terminology "Critical Chain", in place of "Leveled Critical Path".
The next step in CCPM planning consists of recalculating the project schedule based on shortened task duration estimates. According to CCPM:-
| Task owners add hidden buffers to their task estimates in order to be "almost certain" of completing their tasks on time. | |
| Because these buffers are hidden, they will be wasted if they are not needed. The project can finish late even if, on average, there was enough buffer hidden in the tasks. |
Figure 1 illustrates the relationships between the original schedule and the CCPM schedule based on the shortened task durations.

Figure 1 Conventional- schedule and CCPM schedule with the time buffers shown explicitly
The buffers, which were previously hidden in each task, have been made explicit and pooled. A Gantt chart showing the project buffer serves to communicate the inherent uncertainty in the project, as opposed to a conventional Gantt chart that presents a spurious air of certainty.
Statistical theory argues that, by pooling together the individual (hidden) task buffers, the protection against uncertainty is improved, so CCPM suggests that the overall duration of the project can be reduced. In practice, it may be easier to gain task owners acceptance of pooling their individual task buffers if the total is not reduced.
The same process of making safety margins explicit and pooling them can be applied to non-critical paths. As before, the safety margin in each task is identified, taken out, and pooled at the end of the path. Because this buffer is placed where the path feeds back into the critical chain path, it is called "Feeding Buffer". Figure 2 shows a simple project network in which the feeding buffer has been identified. Note that non-critical paths can still have slack, as well as buffer.
Figure 2 Project Network with Feeding Buffer
If there is still some slack on the feeding chain (with feeding buffer), then CCPM prescribes that the task be scheduled as late as possible, to reduce waste of time on the non-critical tasks while preserving enough protection of the critical chain.
The third type of buffer used by CCPM, called a "Resource Buffer, is a "wake-up call" whose purpose is to alert a critical resource to be ready to start work on a critical chain task. The resource buffer does not actually consume any resource, and adds neither time nor cost to the project.
At this point CCPM has created a new project schedule, which consists of the original tasks with reduced durations, and various types of buffers: the project buffer, the feeding buffers and the resource buffers.
For the execution of the project plan, CCPM prescribes the following principles.
| Resources working on critical-chain tasks are expected to work continuously on a single task at a time. They do not work on several tasks in parallel, or suspend critical tasks to do other work. |
| Tasks should be completed as soon as possible, regardless of the dates on the schedule. | |
| When the task is completed, work on its successor begins immediately. Critical resources are warned to be ready to drop non-critical tasks to work on the critical chain task. | |
| If the task is late compared to the CCPM schedule, this is no reason for immediate concern, as the buffer on the chain on which the task is situated will absorb the delay. Project control focuses on buffer consumption: as long as this is in proportion then the project is likely to complete by its committed due date. |
CCPM also provides some guidelines for managing multiple projects sharing a common pool of resources. During execution, if a given resource is required to work simultaneously on several projects, then CCPM prescribes that priority should be given to the task of the one project that is in the greatest risk of missing its committed date, as measured by the remaining fraction of project buffer.
Critique of CCPM
Task duration and safety margins
CCPM assumes that all task owners pad estimates, and that the actual duration expands to fill the time allotted. These two assumptions are plausible, but CCPM theorists provide only anecdotal evidence. In fact, findings in a recent study by Hill et al. (2000) contradict the assumption that task owners will use up all the allocated time, and also indicated that the safety factor, if it existed at all, was certainly not sufficient for the 95% confidence level.
However, if we proceed under the CCPM assumptions there are still two important issues that CCPM does not address satisfactorily. Firstly, how do we estimate the extent of safety factor presumably built into the estimate provided by the task owner. CCPM suggests reducing the estimates by a certain percentage, typically 33%. Clearly such an approach is problematic.
Secondly, the behavioral aspects of taking away the safety margin from the task owner are dealt only superficially by CCPM literature. Imposing shortened duration estimates on the task owners reduces their commitment to the estimates, and could easily encourage them to add larger margins.
Use of buffers in planning and control
In order to contribute to the reduction in the overall project duration, the size of the buffer has to be less than the sum of the safety margins extracted from the tasks on the corresponding chain. However, CCPM does not provide any scientific or objective basis for determining the buffer size. This raises several problems.
First, the concept of feeding chains is based on the assumption that the project network consists of several paths that can start in parallel and then proceed to merge into each other, eventually leading to the final product of the project, as shown in Figure 3

Figure 3 Typical Project Network According to CCPM
However many projects have much more complex network flows, where a task may have both predecessors and successors from several chains. In such cases, it is not clear at all how much feeding buffer should be allotted to each merging task.
A second issue: CCPM depends on identifying the critical chain, but the mathematical problem of scheduling project tasks under resource constraints is known to be very difficult to solve optimally. Thus, it is hard to assess how good is the schedule upon which the buffers are based.
In addition, the critical chain itself may change due to several reasons. If the feeding buffer exceeds the free slack of the feeding chain, then that chain becomes part of the critical chain (see Hoel and Taylor (1999)). During project execution the critical chain may change as resource availability changes or buffers are used. Changes in the critical chain affect the meaning of the various buffers, bringing us to a third issue, the use of buffers for project control.
CCPM achieves schedule control by monitoring the extent of buffer penetration, defined as: "The amount of time running from the original start date of the buffer, to the projected end date of the last task on the corresponding chain". The remaining-work estimation is also subjected to inflation by safety margins, the very same problem that CCPM attempted to solve by using buffers.
CCPM prescribes that priority for limited resources should be given to the task belonging to the chain with the highest rate of buffer penetration, because these chains are most likely to finish late. However, other things may be more important, such as a projects strategic or financial impact.
A final point deserves attention. Buffers typically add at least 10-15% to the number of items on the Gantt chart. These additional items, which have to be interpreted differently from the others, add clutter to the schedule and increase the potential for confusion.
Overall, although feeding and project buffers have some intuitive appeal, they have limitations as the main decision-making criterion in project control.
Resource utilization
CCPM abhors multitasking, but it is not clear that this is a good idea. In fact, a study of 64 high technology firms carried out by McCollum and Sherman (1991) presents some contrary evidence. Specifically, they found that for two of the most important measures of performance, return on the investment (ROI) and rate of sales growth, assignment to two projects seems to be optimal, while a range of up to three may not be problematic.
Resource buffers as a method of team coordination seems rather chaotic, requiring a great deal of unscheduled communication. It may not be feasible at all with outside contractors. There is value in alerting resources to important (critical chain) early-start opportunities, and CCPM is correct to point out that completing tasks on time is not the same as completing the project on time. However, it is our opinion that this is a supplement rather than a substitute for the traditional way of publicizing an agreed schedule, and maintaining its integrity through an effective change-management process.
Multi-Project Management
CCPM deals with multi-project environment by staggering the projects around the constraining resource. In principle, at any given point in time there could be several constraining resources, each leading to a different schedule. The premise that there is a single constraining resource seems more applicable to manufacturing and operations environments than most project environments. Consequently we doubt the applicability of the solution obtained with CCPM.
Scope of CCPM
Project success and project management success are not necessarily equivalent. For many project managers, "Success" means meeting agreed goals on time and budget. Customers are more interested in the benefits that they realise - Lipovetzky et al. (1997) showed that this is almost twice as important as meeting planning goals.
Like conventional project management, CCPM deals with project management success rather than project success. Further, CCPM focuses on schedule goals, particularly on schedule uncertainty. Rather than addressing the root cause of duration uncertainty, CCPM accepts it as a given, and attempts to manage it by means of buffer management. Although CCPM does not preclude the application of other, more comprehensive risk management approaches, its limited focus makes it ill-suited to serve as the single tool for dealing with project uncertainty. At best, it can help manage the schedule uncertainty that remains after the application of risk analysis and risk mitigation tools.
Further, since CCPM is presented as a revolutionary concept that replaces rather than complements current project management knowledge and practices, it is not properly integrated with the accepted body of knowledge and state of the practice. This situation poses a dilemma to organizations that are new to project management, and are asked to choose between CCPM and mainstream methodologies.
Adoption of CCPM
The implementation of CCPM requires that project personnel use a software tool that supports the concept of buffer creation and management. The range of software tool options is limited, relatively expensive, and not mainstream.
However, the software costs of CCPM are likely to be secondary relative to the cultural costs. CCPM is presented as a methodology that has to be adopted in its entirety. As such, CCPM requires massive re-education, including:
| Giving up ownership of the task duration and relying on the schedule buffers to absorb deviations in individual task performance. | |
| Replacing the concept of "Due Date" by "Estimated Completion Date Range" as represented by the feeding and project buffers. | |
| Avoiding multi-tasking. |
Concluding remarks.
CCPM adapted the concepts of bottlenecks and material buffers that were developed within the framework of Goldratts Theory Of Constraints for process management, calling them "critical chain" and "time buffers" in the realm of projects. These concepts are not necessarily new. For instance, the impact of resource availability on critical path calculations has been known for quite some time e.g. see Raz (1996). However, intellectual innovation is not the main issue. The key question is: is CCPM indeed superior to the currently accepted project management methodologies?
Dramatic successes are claimed by proponents of CCPM, but these may compare CCPM with previously weak or non-existent project management. We are not aware of any studies comparing CCPM with a conventional project management methodology.
Although the bulk of this paper has been devoted to a critical analysis of CCPM, it is important to point out its positive side. Even if CCPM is simplistic and oversold, it is worth studying for its several pieces of good advice, which include:
| Account for duration uncertainty by making buffers explicit, sharing the knowledge of buffer sizes and placement with workers, management, and sponsors. | |
| Consider resource availability; | |
| Focus on the key tasks and resources; | |
| Constantly monitor the amount of buffer in your schedule; | |
| Provide advance notice of upcoming work to critical resources; | |
| Do not split your attention among numerous tasks. |
Some of the principles of CCPM do make sense in certain situations, but we suggest weighing its limitations very carefully. Perhaps the optimal solution is to incorporate those CCPM principles that are applicable to your environment within a broader conventional project management methodology.
References
Globerson, S, "PMBOK and the Critical Chain", PM Network, Vol. 14, No. 5, May 2000.
Goldratt, E. H., Critical Chain, North River Press, April 1997.
Hill, J., Thomas, L.C. and Allen, D.E., "Experts estimates of task durations in software development projects", International Journal of Project Management 12(1):13-24, 2000.
Hoel, K. and Taylor, S.G., "Quantifying Buffers for Project Schedules", Production and Inventory Management Journal, Second Quarter, 1999, pp:43-47
Lipovetsky, S., Tishler, A., Dvir, D. and Shenhar, A. : "The relative importance of project success dimensions", R&D Management, 27(2):97-106, 1997.
McCollum, J.K. and Sherman, J.D. "The effects of matrix Organization Size and Number of Project Assignments on Performance", IEEE Transactions On Engineering Management, 38(1):75-78, 1991
Raz, T. and B. Marshall, "Float Calculations in Project Networks Under Resource Constraints", International Journal of Project Management,14(4):241-248, 1996.